Over 1.5 goals@1.09
Over 1.5
92%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1Thursday, 15 October 2026 · AIL Arena
FC Lugano
2nd · 6 pts3–2FULL TIME
FK Crvena Zvezda
22nd · 1 pts61% FC
18% Draw
21% FK
OUR PICK
FC Lugano to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.64
Expected goals
2.62 – 1.52
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.64X5.5724.75
Goals 2.5Over1.28Under4.29
Both scoreGG1.38NG3.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.28
Over 2.5
78%
Both teams to score@1.38
GG
72%
Double chance@1.22
12
82%
Season stats
FC LuganoFK Crvena Zvezda4.0Goals per game2.0
2.0Conceded per game2.5
3.00Points per game0.50
100%Win rate0%
4Goal difference-1
6Form, last 5 (pts)1
FC Lugano form
WWWWWH FC Basel 18932–1
A FC Thun2–3
A Getafe2–5
A Pully Football0–4
H FK Crvena Zvezda3–2
FK Crvena Zvezda form
WWWDWA Macva2–4
A Jedinstvo Ub1–5
A OFK Beograd0–1
H FC Copenhagen2–2
H Mladost Lucani5–1
Head to head
1
FC
0
Draw
0
FK
Oct 2026FC Lugano – FK Crvena Zvezda3–2
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model makes FC Lugano clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.64 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.1 goals in total (2.62 for FC Lugano, 1.52 for FK Crvena Zvezda), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Lugano sit 2nd on 6 points; FK Crvena Zvezda are 22nd on 1.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.