Over 1.5 goals@1.11
Over 1.5
90%
SUISuper League · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · AIL Arena
FC Lugano
1st · 34 pts4–0FULL TIME
FC Luzern
8th · 13 pts77% FC
13% Draw
9% FC
OUR PICK
FC Lugano to win
Model probability 77% · fair odds
1.29
Expected goals
2.98 – 0.98
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.29X7.53210.69
Goals 2.5Over1.33Under3.77
Both scoreGG1.69NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.33
Over 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.69
GG
59%
Double chance@1.10
1X
91%
Season stats
FC LuganoFC Luzern3.0Goals per game1.6
0.8Conceded per game2.1
2.83Points per game1.08
92%Win rate25%
26Goal difference-6
15Form, last 5 (pts)4
FC Lugano form
WWWWWH FC Basel 18932–1
A FC Thun2–3
A Getafe2–5
A Pully Football0–4
H FK Crvena Zvezda3–2
FC Luzern form
DLWLLH FC Sion1–1
A FC Zurich2–1
A FC Winterthur0–1
A FC Lugano4–0
A SC Freiburg4–2
Head to head
4
FC
0
Draw
1
FC
Oct 2026FC Lugano – FC Luzern4–0
Mar 2026FC Lugano – FC Luzern1–3
Jan 2026FC Luzern – FC Lugano2–5
Oct 2025FC Lugano – FC Luzern2–0
May 2025FC Luzern – FC Lugano0–2
Super League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Lugano12+2634
2BSC Young Boys12+1525
3FC Sion12+723
4FC Zurich12-120
5FC ST. Gallen12-319
6Servette FC12+116
7FC Basel 189312-414
8FC Luzern12-613
9FC Thun12-1013
10FC Vaduz12-110
Match preview
Our model makes FC Lugano clear favourites, giving them a 77% chance of winning against 13% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.29 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.0 goals in total (2.98 for FC Lugano, 0.98 for FC Luzern), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Lugano sit 1st on 34 points; FC Luzern are 8th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.