Over 1.5 goals@1.11
Over 1.5
90%
SUISuper League · Matchday 12Sunday, 1 November 2026 · St. Jakob-Park
FC Lugano
1st · 31 pts16:30KICK-OFF WAT
FC Basel 1893
7th · 14 pts81% FC
12% Draw
7% FC
OUR PICK
FC Lugano to win
Model probability 81% · fair odds
1.24
Expected goals
3.08 – 0.86
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.24X8.43213.72
Goals 2.5Over1.33Under3.77
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.33
Over 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.08
1X
93%
Season stats
FC LuganoFC Basel 18933.1Goals per game1.5
0.8Conceded per game1.8
2.82Points per game1.27
91%Win rate36%
25Goal difference-3
13Form, last 5 (pts)4
FC Lugano form
WWWWWA FC Thun2–3
A Getafe2–5
A Pully Football0–4
H FK Crvena Zvezda3–2
H FC Luzern4–0
FC Basel 1893 form
DWLLLH Grasshoppers0–0
A Stade Nyonnais0–3
A FC Vaduz3–0
A FC Winterthur7–3
H FC ST. Gallen1–3
Head to head
4
FC
1
Draw
0
FC
Sept 2026FC Basel 1893 – FC Lugano1–3
May 2026FC Lugano – FC Basel 18934–0
Feb 2026FC Basel 1893 – FC Lugano1–1
Nov 2025FC Basel 1893 – FC Lugano0–1
Aug 2025FC Lugano – FC Basel 18933–1
Super League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Lugano11+2531
2BSC Young Boys11+1725
3FC Sion12+723
4FC ST. Gallen12-319
5FC Zurich11-317
6Servette FC12+116
7FC Basel 189311-314
8FC Luzern12-613
9FC Vaduz12-110
10FC Thun11-1110
Match preview
Our model makes FC Lugano clear favourites, giving them a 81% chance of winning against 12% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.24 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.9 goals in total (3.08 for FC Lugano, 0.86 for FC Basel 1893), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Lugano sit 1st on 31 points; FC Basel 1893 are 7th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.