Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
GER3. Liga · Matchday 10Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Audi Sportpark
FC Ingolstadt 04
7th · 18 pts1–0FULL TIME
Rot-Weiß Essen
3rd · 24 pts31% FC
25% Draw
44% Rot-Weiß
OUR PICK
Rot-Weiß Essen to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.26
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.52
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.28X3.9622.26
Goals 2.5Over1.94Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.94
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
FC Ingolstadt 04Rot-Weiß Essen1.3Goals per game1.7
1.4Conceded per game1.1
1.50Points per game2.00
42%Win rate58%
-1Goal difference7
10Form, last 5 (pts)10
FC Ingolstadt 04 form
DWWWLA Havelse1–1
H MSV Duisburg2–1
H Rot-Weiß Essen1–0
A Waldhof Mannheim0–3
H SV Wehen2–4
Rot-Weiß Essen form
WLWLWA SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach0–1
H RB Leipzig1–2
H SSV Jahn Regensburg1–0
A FC Ingolstadt 041–0
H Fortuna Köln2–0
Head to head
1
FC
1
Draw
3
Rot-Weiß
Oct 2026FC Ingolstadt 04 – Rot-Weiß Essen1–0
Apr 2026Rot-Weiß Essen – FC Ingolstadt 044–1
Nov 2025FC Ingolstadt 04 – Rot-Weiß Essen1–2
Feb 2025Rot-Weiß Essen – FC Ingolstadt 042–0
Sept 2024FC Ingolstadt 04 – Rot-Weiß Essen2–2
3. Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Viktoria Köln12+1626
2MSV Duisburg12+1426
3Rot-Weiß Essen12+724
4FC Saarbrücken12+720
5Alemannia Aachen12+120
6SV Wehen12+618
7FC Ingolstadt 0412-118
8Waldhof Mannheim12+216
9Hoffenheim II12+116
10Fortuna Düsseldorf12-216
Match preview
Our model makes Rot-Weiß Essen slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.26 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.22 for FC Ingolstadt 04, 1.52 for Rot-Weiß Essen), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Ingolstadt 04 sit 7th on 18 points; Rot-Weiß Essen are 3rd on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.