Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
GER3. Liga · Matchday 11Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Audi Sportpark
FC Ingolstadt 04
7th · 18 pts2–1FULL TIME
MSV Duisburg
2nd · 26 pts26% FC
22% Draw
53% MSV
OUR PICK
MSV Duisburg to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
1.35 – 2.00
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.88X4.6121.90
Goals 2.5Over1.54Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.56NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.54
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.56
GG
64%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
FC Ingolstadt 04MSV Duisburg1.3Goals per game2.6
1.4Conceded per game1.4
1.50Points per game2.17
42%Win rate67%
-1Goal difference14
10Form, last 5 (pts)8
FC Ingolstadt 04 form
DWWWLA Havelse1–1
H MSV Duisburg2–1
H Rot-Weiß Essen1–0
A Waldhof Mannheim0–3
H SV Wehen2–4
MSV Duisburg form
DLDWWH Stuttgart II3–3
A FC Ingolstadt 042–1
H FC Viktoria Köln1–1
A FC Saarbrücken2–4
H Hoffenheim II3–2
Head to head
3
FC
1
Draw
1
MSV
Oct 2026FC Ingolstadt 04 – MSV Duisburg2–1
Mar 2026FC Ingolstadt 04 – MSV Duisburg0–0
Sept 2025MSV Duisburg – FC Ingolstadt 042–1
Apr 2024FC Ingolstadt 04 – MSV Duisburg2–0
Nov 2023MSV Duisburg – FC Ingolstadt 041–2
3. Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Viktoria Köln12+1626
2MSV Duisburg12+1426
3Rot-Weiß Essen12+724
4FC Saarbrücken12+720
5Alemannia Aachen12+120
6SV Wehen12+618
7FC Ingolstadt 0412-118
8Waldhof Mannheim12+216
9Hoffenheim II12+116
10Fortuna Düsseldorf12-216
Match preview
Our model makes MSV Duisburg slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.35 for FC Ingolstadt 04, 2.00 for MSV Duisburg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Ingolstadt 04 sit 7th on 18 points; MSV Duisburg are 2nd on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.