Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
DEN1. Division · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Monjasa Park
FC Fredericia
3rd · 23 pts3–0FULL TIME
Hobro
6th · 16 pts64% FC
21% Draw
15% Hobro
OUR PICK
FC Fredericia to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.56
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.79
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.56X4.6926.80
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.93
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.87
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.87
NG
53%
Double chance@1.17
1X
85%
Season stats
FC FredericiaHobro1.6Goals per game1.2
0.7Conceded per game1.8
1.77Points per game1.23
46%Win rate31%
12Goal difference-7
10Form, last 5 (pts)3
FC Fredericia form
WLWWDH AB Copenhagen3–1
A Esbjerg2–1
H Hobro3–0
A Hillerød0–2
H Vejle2–2
Hobro form
DDLDLA Aalborg1–1
H Vendsyssel FF2–2
A FC Fredericia3–0
H Kolding IF1–1
A HB Koge5–2
Head to head
3
FC
1
Draw
1
Hobro
Oct 2026FC Fredericia – Hobro3–0
Oct 2024Hobro – FC Fredericia1–4
Sept 2024FC Fredericia – Hobro1–1
Jun 2024FC Fredericia – Hobro0–1
Apr 2024Hobro – FC Fredericia1–2
1. Division table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hvidovre13+1129
2Vejle13+924
3FC Fredericia13+1223
4AB Copenhagen13+318
5Aarhus Fremad13+118
6Hobro13-716
7Kolding IF13-115
8Aalborg13-215
9Hillerød13-512
10Vendsyssel FF13-712
Match preview
Our model makes FC Fredericia clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.56 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.92 for FC Fredericia, 0.79 for Hobro), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Fredericia sit 3rd on 23 points; Hobro are 6th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.