Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 14Friday, 6 November 2026 · Jan Louwers Stadion
FC Eindhoven
18th · 11 pts20:00KICK-OFF WAT
Jong Ajax
16th · 13 pts48% FC
21% Draw
31% Jong
OUR PICK
FC Eindhoven to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.08
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.59
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.08X4.6723.28
Goals 2.5Over1.43Under3.14
Both scoreGG1.45NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.43
Over 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.45
GG
69%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
FC EindhovenJong Ajax1.4Goals per game1.5
2.2Conceded per game2.3
0.85Points per game1.00
23%Win rate23%
-10Goal difference-11
1Form, last 5 (pts)6
FC Eindhoven form
LWLLLA Helmond Sport3–2
H FC Volendam5–3
H Jong PSV U211–2
H Vitesse0–1
A Almere City FC3–0
Jong Ajax form
DDWLDH Vitesse1–1
A FC OSS3–3
H De Graafschap2–1
H VVV Venlo0–3
H Roda0–0
Head to head
3
FC
1
Draw
1
Jong
Mar 2026FC Eindhoven – Jong Ajax2–1
Nov 2025Jong Ajax – FC Eindhoven1–3
Mar 2025Jong Ajax – FC Eindhoven0–2
Aug 2024FC Eindhoven – Jong Ajax0–3
Dec 2023FC Eindhoven – Jong Ajax2–2
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles13+2532
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda13+524
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse13-118
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes FC Eindhoven slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.08 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (2.03 for FC Eindhoven, 1.59 for Jong Ajax), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Eindhoven sit 18th on 11 points; Jong Ajax are 16th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.