Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
84%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Jan Louwers Stadion
FC Eindhoven
19th · 11 pts2–2FULL TIME
De Graafschap
14th · 15 pts47% FC
23% Draw
30% De
OUR PICK
FC Eindhoven to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.14
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.43
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.14X4.3923.29
Goals 2.5Over1.59Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.57NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.59
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.57
GG
64%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
FC EindhovenDe Graafschap1.4Goals per game1.3
2.2Conceded per game2.1
0.85Points per game1.15
23%Win rate31%
-10Goal difference-10
1Form, last 5 (pts)8
FC Eindhoven form
LWLLLA Helmond Sport3–2
H FC Volendam5–3
H Jong PSV U211–2
H Vitesse0–1
A Almere City FC3–0
De Graafschap form
WLDLWA FC Volendam1–2
A Roda1–0
H Waalwijk1–1
A Jong Ajax2–1
H Jong Utrecht2–1
Head to head
1
FC
2
Draw
2
De
Oct 2026FC Eindhoven – De Graafschap2–2
Apr 2026FC Eindhoven – De Graafschap2–2
Nov 2025De Graafschap – FC Eindhoven2–0
Apr 2025FC Eindhoven – De Graafschap1–0
Sept 2024De Graafschap – FC Eindhoven2–0
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes FC Eindhoven slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.14 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.82 for FC Eindhoven, 1.43 for De Graafschap), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Eindhoven sit 19th on 11 points; De Graafschap are 14th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.