Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 29Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Toyota Stadium
FC Dallas
2nd · 55 pts1–0FULL TIME
Seattle Sounders
10th · 43 pts51% FC
24% Draw
26% Seattle
OUR PICK
FC Dallas to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.97
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.16
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.97X4.2123.91
Goals 2.5Over1.81Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
56%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
FC DallasSeattle Sounders1.8Goals per game1.3
1.5Conceded per game1.4
1.67Points per game1.30
45%Win rate33%
9Goal difference-3
8Form, last 5 (pts)2
FC Dallas form
DLWDWA Sporting Kansas City1–1
H Columbus Crew0–2
H San Jose Earthquakes3–0
A Houston Dynamo2–2
H Seattle Sounders1–0
Seattle Sounders form
LLDDLA Vancouver Whitecaps5–1
H Houston Dynamo0–1
A San Diego2–2
H CF Montreal1–1
A FC Dallas1–0
Head to head
1
FC
0
Draw
4
Seattle
Oct 2026FC Dallas – Seattle Sounders1–0
Apr 2026Seattle Sounders – FC Dallas2–1
May 2025Seattle Sounders – FC Dallas1–0
Apr 2025FC Dallas – Seattle Sounders0–1
Jun 2024Seattle Sounders – FC Dallas3–2
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model makes FC Dallas slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.97 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.73 for FC Dallas, 1.16 for Seattle Sounders), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Dallas sit 2nd on 55 points; Seattle Sounders are 10th on 43.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.