Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 31Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Toyota Stadium
FC Dallas
2nd · 55 pts3–0FULL TIME
San Jose Earthquakes
3rd · 52 pts43% FC
23% Draw
34% San
OUR PICK
FC Dallas to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.32
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.49
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.32X4.2922.97
Goals 2.5Over1.61Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.58NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.58
GG
63%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
FC DallasSan Jose Earthquakes1.8Goals per game1.7
1.5Conceded per game1.5
1.67Points per game1.58
45%Win rate42%
9Goal difference8
8Form, last 5 (pts)6
FC Dallas form
DLWDWA Sporting Kansas City1–1
H Columbus Crew0–2
H San Jose Earthquakes3–0
A Houston Dynamo2–2
H Seattle Sounders1–0
San Jose Earthquakes form
WDLDDH Real Salt Lake2–1
H Colorado Rapids2–2
A FC Dallas3–0
H Nashville SC1–1
A Real Salt Lake1–1
Head to head
2
FC
1
Draw
2
San
Oct 2026FC Dallas – San Jose Earthquakes3–0
May 2026San Jose Earthquakes – FC Dallas2–3
Jul 2025San Jose Earthquakes – FC Dallas2–2
Jun 2025FC Dallas – San Jose Earthquakes2–4
Oct 2024San Jose Earthquakes – FC Dallas3–2
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: FC Dallas 43%, the draw 23%, San Jose Earthquakes 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.32 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.71 for FC Dallas, 1.49 for San Jose Earthquakes), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Dallas sit 2nd on 55 points; San Jose Earthquakes are 3rd on 52.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.