Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
85%
DENSuperliga · Matchday 11Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Parken Stadium
FC Copenhagen
2nd · 26 pts1–1FULL TIME
Aarhus
8th · 12 pts71% FC
17% Draw
12% Aarhus
OUR PICK
FC Copenhagen to win
Model probability 71% · fair odds
1.40
Expected goals
2.47 – 0.92
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.40X5.9828.27
Goals 2.5Over1.52Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.14
1X
88%
Season stats
FC CopenhagenAarhus2.2Goals per game1.3
1.0Conceded per game1.6
2.17Points per game0.92
67%Win rate15%
14Goal difference-4
8Form, last 5 (pts)8
FC Copenhagen form
WDDDWA Aarhus Fremad0–3
H Odense1–1
A FK Crvena Zvezda2–2
H Aarhus1–1
H SC Braga3–0
Aarhus form
LWWDDA Brondby2–0
A Roskilde1–2
H Viborg2–1
H Egnatia Rrogozhinë1–1
A FC Copenhagen1–1
Head to head
1
FC
1
Draw
3
Aarhus
Oct 2026FC Copenhagen – Aarhus1–1
Feb 2026Aarhus – FC Copenhagen4–0
Nov 2025Aarhus – FC Copenhagen2–0
Aug 2025FC Copenhagen – Aarhus2–3
Apr 2025Aarhus – FC Copenhagen1–3
Superliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Midtjylland13+1231
2FC Copenhagen12+1426
3Viborg13+823
4Brondby13+322
5FC Nordsjaelland13+320
6Odense13-217
7AC Horsens13+216
8Aarhus13-412
9Silkeborg13-712
10Randers FC13-811
Match preview
Our model makes FC Copenhagen clear favourites, giving them a 71% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.40 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (2.47 for FC Copenhagen, 0.92 for Aarhus), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Copenhagen sit 2nd on 26 points; Aarhus are 8th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.