Over 1.5 goals@1.11
Over 1.5
90%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 23Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · TQL Stadium
FC Cincinnati
2–1FULL TIME
DC United
59% FC
19% Draw
22% DC
OUR PICK
FC Cincinnati to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.70
Expected goals
2.45 – 1.48
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.70X5.2924.47
Goals 2.5Over1.33Under3.77
Both scoreGG1.42NG3.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.33
Over 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.42
GG
71%
Double chance@1.23
12
81%
FC Cincinnati form
WDWWLH Philadelphia Union1–0
A Inter Miami2–2
A DC United0–2
H DC United2–1
H Columbus Crew0–2
DC United form
LLLLLA Columbus Crew3–0
A Toronto FC2–1
H FC Cincinnati0–2
A FC Cincinnati2–1
A Orlando City SC4–1
Head to head
4
FC
0
Draw
1
DC
Oct 2026DC United – FC Cincinnati0–2
Oct 2026FC Cincinnati – DC United2–1
May 2025FC Cincinnati – DC United1–2
Apr 2025DC United – FC Cincinnati0–1
Jul 2024DC United – FC Cincinnati2–3
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model makes FC Cincinnati clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.70 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.9 goals in total (2.45 for FC Cincinnati, 1.48 for DC United), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.