Over 1.5 goals@1.08
Over 1.5
93%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 7Saturday, 24 October 2026 · WWK Arena
FC Augsburg
10th · 9 pts1–1FULL TIME
Union Berlin
16th · 7 pts77% FC
13% Draw
10% Union
OUR PICK
FC Augsburg to win
Model probability 77% · fair odds
1.31
Expected goals
3.17 – 1.15
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.31X7.6529.62
Goals 2.5Over1.25Under4.72
Both scoreGG1.53NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.25
Over 2.5
80%
Both teams to score@1.53
GG
65%
Double chance@1.12
1X
90%
Season stats
FC AugsburgUnion Berlin2.3Goals per game0.9
1.9Conceded per game2.4
1.13Points per game0.88
25%Win rate13%
3Goal difference-12
2Form, last 5 (pts)6
FC Augsburg form
LWDLDH SC Freiburg1–2
A SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach2–4
H Union Berlin1–1
A SV Elversberg4–3
H Bayern München2–2
Union Berlin form
DLDDWH 1. FC Köln1–1
A 1. FC Köln5–0
A FC Augsburg1–1
H Borussia Dortmund0–0
H SV Elversberg1–0
Head to head
1
FC
2
Draw
2
Union
Oct 2026FC Augsburg – Union Berlin1–1
May 2026Union Berlin – FC Augsburg4–0
Jan 2026FC Augsburg – Union Berlin1–1
May 2025FC Augsburg – Union Berlin1–2
Jan 2025Union Berlin – FC Augsburg0–2
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes FC Augsburg clear favourites, giving them a 77% chance of winning against 13% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.31 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.3 goals in total (3.17 for FC Augsburg, 1.15 for Union Berlin), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Augsburg sit 10th on 9 points; Union Berlin are 16th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.