Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 9Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadi de la FAF
FC Andorra
20th · 10 pts1–0FULL TIME
Castellón
1st · 27 pts10% FC
17% Draw
72% Castellón
OUR PICK
Castellón to win
Model probability 72% · fair odds
1.38
Expected goals
0.72 – 2.26
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X219.68X5.7421.38
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.85
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.85
NG
54%
Double chance@1.12
X2
90%
Season stats
FC AndorraCastellón1.4Goals per game1.9
1.8Conceded per game0.4
0.91Points per game2.25
27%Win rate67%
-5Goal difference18
4Form, last 5 (pts)8
FC Andorra form
DWLLWA Tenerife2–2
A Varea0–3
H Burgos2–3
A Girona2–0
H Castellón1–0
Castellón form
DWWWLA Burgos1–1
A Conquense0–3
H Sporting Gijon4–0
A Las Palmas0–3
A FC Andorra1–0
Head to head
3
FC
0
Draw
2
Castellón
Oct 2026FC Andorra – Castellón1–0
Feb 2026Castellón – FC Andorra2–0
Nov 2025FC Andorra – Castellón1–3
Mar 2022FC Andorra – Castellón1–0
Dec 2021Castellón – FC Andorra1–3
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Mallorca12+822
6Sporting Gijon12022
7Girona12+1121
8Burgos12+421
9Oviedo12+218
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Castellón clear favourites, giving them a 72% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.38 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (0.72 for FC Andorra, 2.26 for Castellón), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Andorra sit 20th on 10 points; Castellón are 1st on 27.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.