Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
ROULiga I · Matchday 11Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Stadionul Central-Academia Gheorghe Hagi
Farul Constanta
6th · 23 pts3–1FULL TIME
Petrolul Ploiesti
5th · 24 pts40% Farul
25% Draw
35% Petrolul
OUR PICK
Farul Constanta to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.47
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.36
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.47X4.0022.89
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.74NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.74
GG
58%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
Farul ConstantaPetrolul Ploiesti1.6Goals per game1.4
1.5Conceded per game1.3
1.64Points per game1.71
43%Win rate50%
2Goal difference1
9Form, last 5 (pts)8
Farul Constanta form
WLWWLH Oţelul4–3
A Universitatea Craiova2–0
H Petrolul Ploiesti3–1
H Popești-Leordeni2–1
A Dinamo Bucuresti4–0
Petrolul Ploiesti form
DWWDLH CFR 1907 Cluj1–1
A Progresul Spartac0–6
A FC Botosani1–3
H Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe1–1
A Farul Constanta3–1
Head to head
5
Farul
0
Draw
0
Petrolul
Oct 2026Farul Constanta – Petrolul Ploiesti3–1
Mar 2026Farul Constanta – Petrolul Ploiesti2–0
Jan 2026Petrolul Ploiesti – Farul Constanta0–1
Sept 2025Farul Constanta – Petrolul Ploiesti2–1
Apr 2025Petrolul Ploiesti – Farul Constanta0–1
Liga I table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Dinamo Bucuresti14+2233
2Universitatea Craiova14+2432
3Rapid14+1030
4Universitatea Cluj14+625
5Petrolul Ploiesti14+124
6Farul Constanta14+223
7FCSB14021
8Corvinul Hunedoara14019
9CFR 1907 Cluj14-118
10Uta Arad14-318
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Farul Constanta 40%, the draw 25%, Petrolul Ploiesti 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.47 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.49 for Farul Constanta, 1.36 for Petrolul Ploiesti), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Farul Constanta sit 6th on 23 points; Petrolul Ploiesti are 5th on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.