PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 8Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Estádio de São Luís

Farense

5th · 15 pts

1–4FULL TIME

Penafiel

2nd · 19 pts

42% Farense

26% Draw

32% Penafiel

OUR PICK

Farense to win

Model probability 42% · fair odds

2.36

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.20

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.36X3.8423.16

Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.96

Both scoreGG1.88NG2.01

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.35

Over 1.5

74%

Over/Under 2.5@1.96

Under 2.5

51%

Both teams to score@1.88

53%

Double chance@1.35

74%

Season stats

FarensePenafiel

1.7Goals per game2.1

1.2Conceded per game0.9

1.67Points per game2.11

44%Win rate67%

4Goal difference11

8Form, last 5 (pts)12

Farense form

DLWWW

A Lusitânia Lourosa1–1

H Penafiel1–4

H AD Marco 093–0

H Feirense2–1

H Chaves4–0

Penafiel form

WWLLD

H Feirense1–0

A Farense1–4

H Leça0–1

H AVS1–2

H Deportivo La Coruna2–2

Head to head

Farense

Draw

Penafiel

Oct 2026Farense – Penafiel1–4

Mar 2026Penafiel – Farense1–1

Oct 2025Farense – Penafiel0–0

Apr 2023Farense – Penafiel2–1

Nov 2022Penafiel – Farense0–2

Segunda Liga table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Sporting CP B9+821

2Penafiel9+1119

3Lusitânia Lourosa9+719

4Benfica B9+517

5Farense9+415

6Academica9+315

7Tondela9+215

8Vizela9+114

9União de Leiria9+214

10AVS9+112

Match preview

Our model makes Farense slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.36 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.43 for Farense, 1.20 for Penafiel), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Farense sit 5th on 15 points; Penafiel are 2nd on 19.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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