Over 1.5 goals@1.66
Over 1.5
60%
PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 7Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estádio de São Luís
Farense
5th · 15 pts2–1FULL TIME
Feirense
18th · 2 pts66% Farense
24% Draw
10% Feirense
OUR PICK
Farense to win
Model probability 66% · fair odds
1.51
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.44
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.51X4.16210.11
Goals 2.5Over2.86Under1.50
Both scoreGG3.37NG1.40
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.50
Under 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.40
NG
72%
Double chance@1.11
1X
90%
Season stats
FarenseFeirense1.7Goals per game0.2
1.2Conceded per game1.2
1.67Points per game0.22
44%Win rate0%
4Goal difference-9
8Form, last 5 (pts)1
Farense form
DLWWWA Lusitânia Lourosa1–1
H Penafiel1–4
H AD Marco 093–0
H Feirense2–1
H Chaves4–0
Feirense form
DLLLLH Benfica B0–0
A Farense2–1
A Salgueiros1–0
A Chaves1–0
H Sporting CP B1–3
Head to head
2
Farense
2
Draw
1
Feirense
Oct 2026Farense – Feirense2–1
Apr 2026Farense – Feirense0–1
Nov 2025Feirense – Farense0–0
Apr 2023Feirense – Farense1–2
Nov 2022Farense – Feirense0–0
Segunda Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Sporting CP B9+821
2Penafiel9+1119
3Lusitânia Lourosa9+719
4Benfica B9+517
5Farense9+415
6Academica9+315
7Tondela9+215
8Vizela9+114
9União de Leiria9+214
10AVS9+112
Match preview
Our model makes Farense clear favourites, giving them a 66% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.51 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (1.59 for Farense, 0.44 for Feirense), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Farense sit 5th on 15 points; Feirense are 18th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.