Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 5Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Estádio de São Luís
Farense
5th · 15 pts4–0FULL TIME
Chaves
15th · 8 pts56% Farense
22% Draw
22% Chaves
OUR PICK
Farense to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.79
Expected goals
1.91 – 1.12
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.79X4.5024.54
Goals 2.5Over1.71Under2.25
Both scoreGG1.74NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.74
GG
57%
Double chance@1.28
1X
78%
Season stats
FarenseChaves1.7Goals per game1.0
1.2Conceded per game2.0
1.67Points per game0.89
44%Win rate22%
4Goal difference-9
8Form, last 5 (pts)7
Farense form
DLWWWA Lusitânia Lourosa1–1
H Penafiel1–4
H AD Marco 093–0
H Feirense2–1
H Chaves4–0
Chaves form
LWWDLA Benfica B3–1
H Vizela2–1
H Os Marialvas2–1
A Lusitânia Lourosa1–1
A Farense4–0
Head to head
2
Farense
1
Draw
2
Chaves
Oct 2026Farense – Chaves4–0
Feb 2026Chaves – Farense2–0
Sept 2025Farense – Chaves0–2
Feb 2024Chaves – Farense1–1
Aug 2023Farense – Chaves5–0
Segunda Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Sporting CP B9+821
2Lusitânia Lourosa9+719
3Benfica B9+517
4Penafiel8+1016
5Farense9+415
6Academica9+315
7Tondela9+215
8Vizela9+114
9União de Leiria9+214
10AVS9+112
Match preview
Our model makes Farense clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.79 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.91 for Farense, 1.12 for Chaves), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Farense sit 5th on 15 points; Chaves are 15th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.