Over 1.5 goals@1.53
Over 1.5
65%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 11Friday, 6 November 2026 · Estadio Municipal de Famalicao
Famalicao
11th · 10 pts21:45KICK-OFF WAT
Arouca
5th · 20 pts31% Famalicao
29% Draw
40% Arouca
OUR PICK
Arouca to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.48
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.21
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.24X3.4822.48
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.63
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.81
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.81
NG
55%
Double chance@1.40
12
71%
Season stats
FamalicaoArouca1.4Goals per game1.3
1.4Conceded per game0.7
1.00Points per game2.00
20%Win rate60%
0Goal difference6
7Form, last 5 (pts)10
Famalicao form
LDWLLA SC Braga3–0
A SC Braga2–2
A Rio Ave0–4
A Paredes1–0
H Alverca1–4
Arouca form
WWWWDH Nacional1–0
A Alverca0–1
A CF Os Belenenses3–4
H Estrela1–0
A Sporting CP2–2
Head to head
2
Famalicao
3
Draw
0
Arouca
Jul 2026Famalicao – Arouca0–0
Mar 2026Famalicao – Arouca1–0
Oct 2025Arouca – Famalicao1–1
Apr 2025Arouca – Famalicao1–2
Nov 2024Famalicao – Arouca0–0
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica10+1925
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente10+115
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca10-111
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Famalicao 31%, the draw 29%, Arouca 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.48 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.02 for Famalicao, 1.21 for Arouca), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Famalicao sit 11th on 10 points; Arouca are 5th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.