Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
SCOPremiership · Matchday 10Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Falkirk Stadium
Falkirk
4th · 18 pts3–0FULL TIME
Kilmarnock
11th · 9 pts61% Falkirk
22% Draw
18% Kilmarnock
OUR PICK
Falkirk to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.65
Expected goals
1.91 – 0.92
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.65X4.5825.67
Goals 2.5Over1.86Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.95NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.95
GG
51%
Double chance@1.21
1X
82%
Season stats
FalkirkKilmarnock1.3Goals per game1.1
1.0Conceded per game2.3
1.50Points per game0.75
42%Win rate17%
3Goal difference-15
12Form, last 5 (pts)4
Falkirk form
WWWWLH Celtic2–0
A Aberdeen0–1
H Kilmarnock3–0
A Hibernian1–2
H Dundee1–2
Kilmarnock form
DLLWLH ST Johnstone2–2
A Dundee3–1
A Falkirk3–0
H Motherwell3–2
A Rangers3–1
Head to head
4
Falkirk
0
Draw
1
Kilmarnock
Oct 2026Falkirk – Kilmarnock3–0
Feb 2026Falkirk – Kilmarnock5–1
Dec 2025Kilmarnock – Falkirk0–1
Nov 2025Falkirk – Kilmarnock3–1
Jun 2022Falkirk – Kilmarnock1–4
Premiership table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Celtic12+1728
2Rangers11+1024
3Heart Of Midlothian11+720
4Falkirk12+318
5Dundee11+417
6Dundee Utd11016
7ST Johnstone12-414
8ST Mirren12-814
9Motherwell12-612
10Aberdeen11-211
Match preview
Our model makes Falkirk clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.91 for Falkirk, 0.92 for Kilmarnock), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Falkirk sit 4th on 18 points; Kilmarnock are 11th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.