Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 11Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · JFE Harenokuni Stadium
Fagiano Okayama
10th · 16 pts2–0FULL TIME
Mito Hollyhock
19th · 9 pts48% Fagiano
25% Draw
27% Mito
OUR PICK
Fagiano Okayama to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.06
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.13
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.06X4.0423.74
Goals 2.5Over1.94Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.85NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.94
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.85
GG
54%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
Fagiano OkayamaMito Hollyhock1.2Goals per game0.9
1.6Conceded per game1.9
1.23Points per game0.69
38%Win rate15%
-6Goal difference-13
3Form, last 5 (pts)0
Fagiano Okayama form
LLWLDH FC Tokyo0–4
A Kawasaki Frontale2–1
H Mito Hollyhock2–0
H Vissel Kobe0–3
A Nagoya Grampus3–3
Mito Hollyhock form
LLLLLH Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–3
H Cerezo Osaka1–3
A FC Tokyo6–0
A Fagiano Okayama2–0
H Urawa0–1
Head to head
3
Fagiano
2
Draw
0
Mito
Oct 2026Fagiano Okayama – Mito Hollyhock2–0
Sept 2024Mito Hollyhock – Fagiano Okayama0–0
Mar 2024Fagiano Okayama – Mito Hollyhock1–0
Jul 2023Fagiano Okayama – Mito Hollyhock1–0
Mar 2023Mito Hollyhock – Fagiano Okayama1–1
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Fagiano Okayama slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.06 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.61 for Fagiano Okayama, 1.13 for Mito Hollyhock), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Fagiano Okayama sit 10th on 16 points; Mito Hollyhock are 19th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.