Over 1.5 goals@1.63
Over 1.5
61%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · St James Park
Exeter City
12th · 19 pts1–0FULL TIME
Rotherham
22nd · 12 pts49% Exeter
29% Draw
22% Rotherham
OUR PICK
Exeter City to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.77
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.04X3.4724.52
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.52
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.64
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.64
NG
61%
Double chance@1.28
1X
78%
Season stats
Exeter CityRotherham0.8Goals per game1.3
0.6Conceded per game1.8
1.36Points per game0.86
36%Win rate14%
2Goal difference-7
10Form, last 5 (pts)2
Exeter City form
LWWDWA Salford City2–1
H Fleetwood Town2–1
H Crewe2–0
A Colchester0–0
A Shrewsbury0–1
Rotherham form
LDDLLA Swindon Town2–1
H Shrewsbury3–3
H Newport County2–2
A Fleetwood Town2–0
H Gillingham1–4
Head to head
2
Exeter
1
Draw
2
Rotherham
Oct 2026Exeter City – Rotherham1–0
Jan 2026Exeter City – Rotherham0–4
Sept 2025Rotherham – Exeter City1–0
Mar 2025Rotherham – Exeter City1–1
Aug 2024Exeter City – Rotherham1–0
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Exeter City slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.30 for Exeter City, 0.77 for Rotherham), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Exeter City sit 12th on 19 points; Rotherham are 22nd on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.