Over 1.5 goals@2.13
Over 1.5
47%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 13Saturday, 24 October 2026 · St James Park
Exeter City
12th · 19 pts2–1FULL TIME
Fleetwood Town
16th · 17 pts38% Exeter
35% Draw
27% Fleetwood
OUR PICK
Exeter City to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.63
Expected goals
0.89 – 0.69
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.63X2.8323.76
Goals 2.5Over4.49Under1.27
Both scoreGG3.25NG1.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.27
Under 2.5
79%
Both teams to score@1.42
NG
71%
Double chance@1.36
1X
73%
Season stats
Exeter CityFleetwood Town0.8Goals per game1.3
0.6Conceded per game1.3
1.36Points per game1.21
36%Win rate29%
2Goal difference0
10Form, last 5 (pts)7
Exeter City form
LWWDWA Salford City2–1
H Fleetwood Town2–1
H Crewe2–0
A Colchester0–0
A Shrewsbury0–1
Fleetwood Town form
WDLLWH Bristol Rovers3–1
H Arsenal1–1
A Exeter City2–1
A Cheltenham4–2
H Rotherham2–0
Head to head
2
Exeter
2
Draw
1
Fleetwood
Oct 2026Exeter City – Fleetwood Town2–1
Feb 2024Exeter City – Fleetwood Town1–1
Nov 2023Fleetwood Town – Exeter City3–0
Apr 2023Fleetwood Town – Exeter City2–2
Oct 2022Exeter City – Fleetwood Town2–1
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Exeter City slight favourites, giving them a 38% chance of winning against 35% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.63 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.6 goals in total (0.89 for Exeter City, 0.69 for Fleetwood Town), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Exeter City sit 12th on 19 points; Fleetwood Town are 16th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.