Over 1.5 goals@2.13
Over 1.5
47%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 12Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · St James Park
Exeter City
12th · 19 pts2–0FULL TIME
Crewe
4th · 22 pts35% Exeter
36% Draw
29% Crewe
OUR PICK
Draw
Model probability 36% · fair odds
2.81
Expected goals
0.84 – 0.74
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.85X2.8123.41
Goals 2.5Over4.49Under1.27
Both scoreGG3.14NG1.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.27
Under 2.5
79%
Both teams to score@1.42
NG
70%
Double chance@1.42
1X
71%
Season stats
Exeter CityCrewe0.8Goals per game1.2
0.6Conceded per game1.2
1.36Points per game1.57
36%Win rate36%
2Goal difference0
10Form, last 5 (pts)7
Exeter City form
LWWDWA Salford City2–1
H Fleetwood Town2–1
H Crewe2–0
A Colchester0–0
A Shrewsbury0–1
Crewe form
DLLWWH Barnet1–1
A Chesterfield5–1
A Exeter City2–0
H Rochdale3–2
A Swindon Town0–1
Head to head
3
Exeter
2
Draw
0
Crewe
Oct 2026Exeter City – Crewe2–0
Mar 2020Exeter City – Crewe1–1
Oct 2019Crewe – Exeter City1–1
Feb 2019Crewe – Exeter City1–2
Dec 2018Exeter City – Crewe1–0
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Exeter City 35%, the draw 36%, Crewe 29%.
Our fair price for "Draw" is 2.81 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.6 goals in total (0.84 for Exeter City, 0.74 for Crewe), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Exeter City sit 12th on 19 points; Crewe are 4th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.