Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 11Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
Excelsior
12th · 11 pts0–5HALF TIME
Twente
4th · 20 pts28% Excelsior
24% Draw
48% Twente
OUR PICK
Twente to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.08
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.71
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.57X4.2022.08
Goals 2.5Over1.76Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.71NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.71
GG
58%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
ExcelsiorTwente1.6Goals per game1.9
1.9Conceded per game1.0
1.10Points per game2.00
30%Win rate60%
-3Goal difference9
1Form, last 5 (pts)10
Excelsior form
No recent matches.
Twente form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Excelsior
0
Draw
0
Twente
These sides haven't met recently.
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente10+920
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen10+315
9GO Ahead Eagles10014
10Cambuur10-312
Match preview
Our model makes Twente slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.08 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.25 for Excelsior, 1.71 for Twente), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Excelsior sit 12th on 11 points; Twente are 4th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.