Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
CHIPrimera División · Matchday 24Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio Sausalito
Everton de Vina
4th · 40 pts3–2FULL TIME
D. La Serena
9th · 34 pts55% Everton
22% Draw
23% D.
OUR PICK
Everton de Vina to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.83
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.16
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.83X4.4824.34
Goals 2.5Over1.70Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.71NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.71
GG
58%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Season stats
Everton de VinaD. La Serena1.7Goals per game1.5
1.3Conceded per game1.6
1.54Points per game1.31
42%Win rate31%
10Goal difference-3
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Everton de Vina form
DLWDLA Cobresal2–2
A Universidad de Chile4–1
H D. La Serena3–2
A Universidad de Chile1–1
H Universidad de Chile0–1
D. La Serena form
DWLLWA Huachipato0–0
H Concepción3–1
A Everton de Vina3–2
H Universidad de Chile0–3
H Nublense2–1
Head to head
3
Everton
0
Draw
2
D.
Oct 2026Everton de Vina – D. La Serena3–2
Apr 2026D. La Serena – Everton de Vina1–0
Aug 2025Everton de Vina – D. La Serena3–1
Apr 2025D. La Serena – Everton de Vina2–1
Aug 2022Everton de Vina – D. La Serena4–0
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Colo Colo26+2858
2Universidad de Chile26+2448
3U. Catolica26+1646
4Everton de Vina26+1040
5Palestino25+338
6Deportes Limache25+937
7Coquimbo Unido25+335
8Nublense26-935
9D. La Serena26-334
10Huachipato25-633
Match preview
Our model makes Everton de Vina clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.83 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.90 for Everton de Vina, 1.16 for D. La Serena), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Everton de Vina sit 4th on 40 points; D. La Serena are 9th on 34.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.