Over 1.5 goals@1.45
Over 1.5
69%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 10Friday, 6 November 2026 · Hill Dickinson Stadium
Everton
14th · 10 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Coventry
16th · 9 pts52% Everton
26% Draw
22% Coventry
OUR PICK
Everton to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.91
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.88
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.91X3.8624.59
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.75
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.84
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.84
NG
54%
Double chance@1.28
1X
78%
Season stats
EvertonCoventry1.0Goals per game1.0
1.1Conceded per game1.8
1.25Points per game1.00
25%Win rate33%
-1Goal difference-7
5Form, last 5 (pts)9
Everton form
WWLLDA Newcastle0–1
H Newcastle3–1
A Arsenal2–0
H Chelsea0–2
A Hull City2–2
Coventry form
WLLWWH Sunderland3–1
H Fulham0–1
A Tottenham3–1
H Newcastle4–1
A Nottingham Forest0–1
Head to head
0
Everton
0
Draw
1
Coventry
Jul 2024Coventry – Everton3–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Everton slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.91 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.52 for Everton, 0.88 for Coventry), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Everton sit 14th on 10 points; Coventry are 16th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.