Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
80%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 7Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Hill Dickinson Stadium
Everton
7th · 13 pts0–2FULL TIME
Chelsea
4th · 16 pts47% Everton
24% Draw
29% Chelsea
OUR PICK
Everton to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.13
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.28
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.13X4.1823.44
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.70NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.70
GG
59%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
EvertonChelsea1.0Goals per game2.1
1.0Conceded per game1.7
1.44Points per game1.78
33%Win rate56%
0Goal difference4
7Form, last 5 (pts)9
Everton form
WWLLDA Newcastle0–1
H Newcastle3–1
A Arsenal2–0
H Chelsea0–2
A Hull City2–2
Chelsea form
WDLWWH Manchester United2–0
A Liverpool1–1
H Tottenham0–2
A Everton0–2
H Bournemouth5–1
Head to head
1
Everton
1
Draw
3
Chelsea
Oct 2026Everton – Chelsea0–2
Mar 2026Everton – Chelsea3–0
Dec 2025Chelsea – Everton2–0
Apr 2025Chelsea – Everton1–0
Dec 2024Everton – Chelsea0–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Everton9013
8Bournemouth9+112
9Tottenham9012
10Aston Villa9-312
Match preview
Our model makes Everton slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.13 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.69 for Everton, 1.28 for Chelsea), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Everton sit 7th on 13 points; Chelsea are 4th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.