Over 1.5 goals@2.28
Over 1.5
44%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 13Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Estadio Ciudad de La Plata
Estudiantes L.P.
1st · 31 pts1–2FULL TIME
San Lorenzo
7th · 22 pts56% Estudiantes
32% Draw
11% San
OUR PICK
Estudiantes L.P. to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.78
Expected goals
1.14 – 0.35
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.78X3.0828.82
Goals 2.5Over4.97Under1.23
Both scoreGG4.72NG1.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.23
Under 2.5
81%
Both teams to score@1.25
NG
80%
Double chance@1.13
1X
89%
Season stats
Estudiantes L.P.San Lorenzo1.2Goals per game0.9
0.4Conceded per game0.9
1.94Points per game1.38
56%Win rate31%
12Goal difference0
5Form, last 5 (pts)8
Estudiantes L.P. form
DLDLDH Instituto Cordoba3–3
A Union Santa Fe3–1
A Flamengo0–0
H San Lorenzo1–2
H Flamengo0–0
San Lorenzo form
DDWWLA Velez Sarsfield2–2
H Newells Old Boys0–0
A Estudiantes L.P.1–2
H Deportivo Riestra1–0
A Defensa Y Justicia3–0
Head to head
0
Estudiantes
0
Draw
0
San
These sides haven't met recently.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Estudiantes L.P. clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 32% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.78 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.5 goals in total (1.14 for Estudiantes L.P., 0.35 for San Lorenzo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Estudiantes L.P. sit 1st on 31 points; San Lorenzo are 7th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.