Over 1.5 goals@1.78
Over 1.5
56%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 11Monday, 5 October 2026 · Estadio Ciudad de La Plata
Estudiantes L.P.
1st · 31 pts3–0FULL TIME
Gimnasia M.
11th · 19 pts60% Estudiantes
27% Draw
13% Gimnasia
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Estudiantes L.P. to win
Model probability 60% · fair odds
1.67
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.48
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.67X3.6527.91
Goals 2.5Over3.25Under1.41
Both scoreGG3.25NG1.40
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.41
Under 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.40
NG
71%
Double chance@1.14
1X
87%
Season stats
Estudiantes L.P.Gimnasia M.1.2Goals per game0.9
0.4Conceded per game1.4
1.94Points per game1.19
56%Win rate31%
12Goal difference-8
5Form, last 5 (pts)4
Estudiantes L.P. form
DLDLDH Instituto Cordoba3–3
A Union Santa Fe3–1
A Flamengo0–0
H San Lorenzo1–2
H Flamengo0–0
Gimnasia M. form
DLLWLA Lanus1–1
H Platense1–2
A Velez Sarsfield1–0
H Newells Old Boys1–0
A Estudiantes L.P.3–0
Head to head
2
Estudiantes
0
Draw
0
Gimnasia
Oct 2026Estudiantes L.P. – Gimnasia M.3–0
Mar 2026Gimnasia M. – Estudiantes L.P.1–2
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Estudiantes L.P. clear favourites, giving them a 60% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.67 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.40 for Estudiantes L.P., 0.48 for Gimnasia M.), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Estudiantes L.P. sit 1st on 31 points; Gimnasia M. are 11th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.