Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 9Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Estádio José Gomes
Estrela
12th · 10 pts0–2FULL TIME
Casa Pia
17th · 7 pts75% Estrela
16% Draw
9% Casa
OUR PICK
Estrela to win
Model probability 75% · fair odds
1.34
Expected goals
2.45 – 0.74
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.34X6.33210.74
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.10
1X
91%
Season stats
EstrelaCasa Pia1.5Goals per game0.5
1.9Conceded per game1.9
1.00Points per game0.70
20%Win rate20%
-4Goal difference-14
1Form, last 5 (pts)6
Estrela form
LLWLLA Moreirense2–1
H Casa Pia0–2
A Fazendense1–2
A Arouca1–0
H Academico Viseu0–2
Casa Pia form
LWWLWH Sporting CP0–2
A Estrela0–2
A Alpendorada0–1
H Santa Clara0–1
A Estoril1–2
Head to head
2
Estrela
0
Draw
3
Casa
Oct 2026Estrela – Casa Pia0–2
Jul 2026Estrela – Casa Pia1–2
Mar 2026Estrela – Casa Pia4–0
Nov 2025Casa Pia – Estrela3–5
Feb 2025Casa Pia – Estrela1–0
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica10+1925
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente10+115
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca10-111
Match preview
Our model makes Estrela clear favourites, giving them a 75% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.34 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.45 for Estrela, 0.74 for Casa Pia), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Estrela sit 12th on 10 points; Casa Pia are 17th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.