Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
90%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 11Sunday, 8 November 2026
Estrela
12th · 10 pts21:30KICK-OFF WAT
Benfica
2nd · 25 pts14% Estrela
16% Draw
69% Benfica
OUR PICK
Benfica to win
Model probability 69% · fair odds
1.44
Expected goals
1.16 – 2.68
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X217.01X6.1321.44
Goals 2.5Over1.36Under3.63
Both scoreGG1.56NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.36
Over 2.5
74%
Both teams to score@1.56
GG
64%
Double chance@1.17
X2
86%
Season stats
EstrelaBenfica1.5Goals per game2.7
1.9Conceded per game0.8
1.00Points per game2.50
20%Win rate80%
-4Goal difference19
1Form, last 5 (pts)12
Estrela form
LLWLLA Moreirense2–1
H Casa Pia0–2
A Fazendense1–2
A Arouca1–0
H Academico Viseu0–2
Benfica form
WWWWWH Alverca1–0
H GIL Vicente4–1
A Santa Clara1–2
A Omonia Nicosia1–4
H Celtic4–1
Head to head
0
Estrela
0
Draw
5
Benfica
Jan 2026Benfica – Estrela4–0
Aug 2025Estrela – Benfica0–1
Feb 2025Estrela – Benfica2–3
Nov 2024Benfica – Estrela7–0
Aug 2024Benfica – Estrela1–0
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica10+1925
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente10+115
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca10-111
Match preview
Our model makes Benfica clear favourites, giving them a 69% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.44 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (1.16 for Estrela, 2.68 for Benfica), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Estrela sit 12th on 10 points; Benfica are 2nd on 25.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.