Over 1.5 goals@1.51
Over 1.5
66%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 9Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota
Estoril
18th · 2 pts1–3FULL TIME
Moreirense
9th · 14 pts29% Estoril
28% Draw
43% Moreirense
OUR PICK
Moreirense to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.32
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.28
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.48X3.5522.32
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.66
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.83
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.83
NG
55%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
EstorilMoreirense0.5Goals per game1.3
1.9Conceded per game1.7
0.20Points per game1.40
0%Win rate40%
-14Goal difference-4
0Form, last 5 (pts)10
Estoril form
LLDLLA FC Porto4–0
H Moreirense1–3
A Salgueiros1–1
A Academico Viseu2–1
H Casa Pia1–2
Moreirense form
WWLLDH Estrela2–1
A Estoril1–3
A AVS1–0
H GIL Vicente0–1
A Vitória SC1–1
Head to head
0
Estoril
3
Draw
2
Moreirense
Oct 2026Estoril – Moreirense1–3
Apr 2026Moreirense – Estoril1–0
Dec 2025Estoril – Moreirense3–3
May 2025Moreirense – Estoril2–2
Dec 2024Estoril – Moreirense2–2
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente9+114
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca9011
Match preview
Our model makes Moreirense slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.32 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (0.99 for Estoril, 1.28 for Moreirense), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Estoril sit 18th on 2 points; Moreirense are 9th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.