Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 11Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota
Estoril
18th · 2 pts16:30KICK-OFF WAT
Maritimo
14th · 8 pts35% Estoril
28% Draw
37% Maritimo
OUR PICK
Maritimo to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.72
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.19
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.84X3.5722.72
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.72
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
EstorilMaritimo0.5Goals per game0.9
1.9Conceded per game2.1
0.20Points per game0.80
0%Win rate20%
-14Goal difference-12
0Form, last 5 (pts)1
Estoril form
LLDLLA FC Porto4–0
H Moreirense1–3
A Salgueiros1–1
A Academico Viseu2–1
H Casa Pia1–2
Maritimo form
LLLWLH Santa Clara0–2
A Sporting CP2–1
A Vitória SC5–0
A Alcochetense1–2
H FC Porto1–2
Head to head
3
Estoril
1
Draw
1
Maritimo
May 2023Estoril – Maritimo3–1
Jan 2023Maritimo – Estoril1–0
Feb 2022Maritimo – Estoril0–0
Aug 2021Estoril – Maritimo2–1
Jan 2021Maritimo – Estoril1–3
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica10+1925
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente10+115
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca10-111
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Estoril 35%, the draw 28%, Maritimo 37%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.72 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.16 for Estoril, 1.19 for Maritimo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Estoril sit 18th on 2 points; Maritimo are 14th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.