Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
84%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 6Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Stade de l'Aube
Estac Troyes
16th · 8 pts0–2FULL TIME
Marseille
6th · 15 pts25% Estac
22% Draw
53% Marseille
OUR PICK
Marseille to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.87
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.97
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.05X4.5721.87
Goals 2.5Over1.59Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.61NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.59
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.61
GG
62%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
Estac TroyesMarseille0.8Goals per game2.2
1.8Conceded per game1.4
0.89Points per game1.67
22%Win rate56%
-9Goal difference7
4Form, last 5 (pts)12
Estac Troyes form
WDLLDH Le Mans2–0
A Toulouse0–0
H Lens1–3
H Marseille0–2
A Dijon2–2
Marseille form
WWLWLH Toulouse2–0
H Le Havre4–3
A Sturm Graz1–0
A Angers2–5
H Olympiakos Piraeus0–1
Head to head
0
Estac
1
Draw
4
Marseille
Oct 2026Estac Troyes – Marseille0–2
Apr 2023Marseille – Estac Troyes3–1
Jan 2023Estac Troyes – Marseille0–2
Feb 2022Estac Troyes – Marseille1–1
Nov 2021Marseille – Estac Troyes1–0
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Marseille slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.87 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.28 for Estac Troyes, 1.97 for Marseille), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Estac Troyes sit 16th on 8 points; Marseille are 6th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.