Over 1.5 goals@1.36
Over 1.5
73%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 7Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Stade de l'Aube
Estac Troyes
16th · 8 pts1–3FULL TIME
Lens
9th · 13 pts28% Estac
26% Draw
46% Lens
OUR PICK
Lens to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.19
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.49
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.51X3.8822.19
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.94
Both scoreGG1.92NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.94
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.92
GG
52%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
Estac TroyesLens0.8Goals per game1.8
1.8Conceded per game1.4
0.89Points per game1.44
22%Win rate44%
-9Goal difference3
4Form, last 5 (pts)9
Estac Troyes form
WDLLDH Le Mans2–0
A Toulouse0–0
H Lens1–3
H Marseille0–2
A Dijon2–2
Lens form
LWLWLA Lille1–0
H Paris FC2–1
A Club Brugge KV3–0
A Estac Troyes1–3
H Sporting CP0–2
Head to head
0
Estac
1
Draw
4
Lens
Oct 2026Estac Troyes – Lens1–3
Feb 2026Estac Troyes – Lens2–4
Jan 2023Estac Troyes – Lens1–1
Sept 2022Lens – Estac Troyes1–0
May 2022Estac Troyes – Lens1–3
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Stade Brestois 299+412
Match preview
Our model makes Lens slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.19 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.12 for Estac Troyes, 1.49 for Lens), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Estac Troyes sit 16th on 8 points; Lens are 9th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.