Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 9Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Stade de l'Aube
Estac Troyes
16th · 8 pts2–0FULL TIME
Le Mans
17th · 7 pts31% Estac
25% Draw
44% Le
OUR PICK
Le Mans to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.27
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.54
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.23X3.9922.27
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.78NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.78
GG
56%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
Estac TroyesLe Mans0.8Goals per game1.2
1.8Conceded per game2.0
0.89Points per game0.78
22%Win rate11%
-9Goal difference-7
4Form, last 5 (pts)4
Estac Troyes form
WDLLDH Le Mans2–0
A Toulouse0–0
H Lens1–3
H Marseille0–2
A Dijon2–2
Le Mans form
LDLLLA Estac Troyes2–0
A Auxerre1–1
H Toulouse0–3
A Paris Saint Germain3–1
A Guingamp2–1
Head to head
3
Estac
1
Draw
1
Le
Oct 2026Estac Troyes – Le Mans2–0
Jan 2026Estac Troyes – Le Mans0–2
Oct 2025Le Mans – Estac Troyes2–2
Oct 2019Estac Troyes – Le Mans2–1
Feb 2012Estac Troyes – Le Mans2–1
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Le Mans slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.25 for Estac Troyes, 1.54 for Le Mans), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Estac Troyes sit 16th on 8 points; Le Mans are 17th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.