Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
73%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 9Saturday, 17 October 2026 · RCDE Stadium
Espanyol
14th · 11 pts0–1FULL TIME
Atletico Madrid
2nd · 28 pts25% Espanyol
25% Draw
50% Atletico
OUR PICK
Atletico Madrid to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.00
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.56
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.08X3.9422.00
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.90
Both scoreGG1.99NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.99
GG
50%
Double chance@1.33
X2
75%
Season stats
EspanyolAtletico Madrid1.2Goals per game2.0
1.3Conceded per game0.7
1.00Points per game2.55
27%Win rate82%
-1Goal difference14
4Form, last 5 (pts)15
Espanyol form
WLLLDA Villarreal0–1
A Sestao River4–3
A Racing Santander2–1
H Atletico Madrid0–1
A Malaga1–1
Atletico Madrid form
WWDWWA Levante0–2
H Deportivo La Coruna1–0
A VfB Stuttgart1–1
A Espanyol0–1
H Manchester United2–0
Head to head
1
Espanyol
2
Draw
2
Atletico
Oct 2026Espanyol – Atletico Madrid0–1
Feb 2026Atletico Madrid – Espanyol4–2
Aug 2025Espanyol – Atletico Madrid2–1
Mar 2025Espanyol – Atletico Madrid1–1
Aug 2024Atletico Madrid – Espanyol0–0
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico Madrid slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.00 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.01 for Espanyol, 1.56 for Atletico Madrid), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Espanyol sit 14th on 11 points; Atletico Madrid are 2nd on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.