Over 1.5 goals@1.35
Over 1.5
74%
DEN1. Division · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Blue Water Arena
Esbjerg
12th · 11 pts2–1FULL TIME
FC Fredericia
3rd · 23 pts15% Esbjerg
22% Draw
63% FC
OUR PICK
FC Fredericia to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.59
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.86
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X216.61X4.5621.59
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.84
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.84
NG
54%
Double chance@1.18
X2
85%
Season stats
EsbjergFC Fredericia1.2Goals per game1.6
1.8Conceded per game0.7
0.85Points per game1.77
15%Win rate46%
-8Goal difference12
6Form, last 5 (pts)10
Esbjerg form
DLWDDH Hvidovre1–1
H FC Nordsjaelland0–1
H FC Fredericia2–1
A Aarhus Fremad0–0
H Aalborg3–3
FC Fredericia form
WLWWDH AB Copenhagen3–1
A Esbjerg2–1
H Hobro3–0
A Hillerød0–2
H Vejle2–2
Head to head
1
Esbjerg
1
Draw
3
FC
Oct 2026Esbjerg – FC Fredericia2–1
Sept 2026FC Fredericia – Esbjerg1–0
Jul 2026Esbjerg – FC Fredericia0–1
Apr 2025FC Fredericia – Esbjerg1–1
Apr 2025Esbjerg – FC Fredericia0–2
1. Division table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hvidovre13+1129
2Vejle13+924
3FC Fredericia13+1223
4AB Copenhagen13+318
5Aarhus Fremad13+118
6Hobro13-716
7Kolding IF13-115
8Aalborg13-215
9Hillerød13-512
10Vendsyssel FF13-712
Match preview
Our model makes FC Fredericia clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.59 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (0.78 for Esbjerg, 1.86 for FC Fredericia), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Esbjerg sit 12th on 11 points; FC Fredericia are 3rd on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.