Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
70%
DEN1. Division · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Blue Water Arena
Esbjerg
12th · 11 pts3–3FULL TIME
Aalborg
8th · 15 pts35% Esbjerg
27% Draw
37% Aalborg
OUR PICK
Aalborg to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.68
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.25
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.82X3.6722.68
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.80
Both scoreGG2.00NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@2.00
GG
50%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
EsbjergAalborg1.2Goals per game1.2
1.8Conceded per game1.4
0.85Points per game1.15
15%Win rate23%
-8Goal difference-2
6Form, last 5 (pts)3
Esbjerg form
DLWDDH Hvidovre1–1
H FC Nordsjaelland0–1
H FC Fredericia2–1
A Aarhus Fremad0–0
H Aalborg3–3
Aalborg form
DLLDWH Hobro1–1
A Hillerød2–1
H Vejle0–1
A Esbjerg3–3
A Randers FC0–1
Head to head
1
Esbjerg
3
Draw
1
Aalborg
Oct 2026Esbjerg – Aalborg3–3
Mar 2026Aalborg – Esbjerg1–1
Aug 2025Esbjerg – Aalborg1–0
Oct 2024Esbjerg – Aalborg0–2
Jun 2021Aalborg – Esbjerg0–0
1. Division table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hvidovre13+1129
2Vejle13+924
3FC Fredericia13+1223
4AB Copenhagen13+318
5Aarhus Fremad13+118
6Hobro13-716
7Kolding IF13-115
8Aalborg13-215
9Hillerød13-512
10Vendsyssel FF13-712
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Esbjerg 35%, the draw 27%, Aalborg 37%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.68 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.21 for Esbjerg, 1.25 for Aalborg), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Esbjerg sit 12th on 11 points; Aalborg are 8th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.