Over 1.5 goals@1.36
Over 1.5
74%
NGANPFL · Matchday 7Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium
Enugu Rangers
2nd · 18 pts3–1FULL TIME
Abia Warriors
18th · 10 pts59% Enugu
23% Draw
18% Abia
OUR PICK
Enugu Rangers to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.69
Expected goals
1.77 – 0.85
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.69X4.3225.64
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.95
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.95
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.90
NG
52%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
Enugu RangersAbia Warriors1.7Goals per game0.9
1.1Conceded per game1.5
2.00Points per game0.91
56%Win rate18%
5Goal difference-7
8Form, last 5 (pts)2
Enugu Rangers form
DLWDWA Rivers United1–1
A MC Alger3–0
H MC Alger2–0
A Barau FC2–2
H Abia Warriors3–1
Abia Warriors form
LLDDLA Shooting Stars4–1
H Niger Tornadoes0–1
A Kwara United1–1
H Rivers United0–0
A Enugu Rangers3–1
Head to head
3
Enugu
1
Draw
1
Abia
Oct 2026Enugu Rangers – Abia Warriors3–1
Feb 2026Abia Warriors – Enugu Rangers0–0
Oct 2025Enugu Rangers – Abia Warriors2–0
Feb 2025Abia Warriors – Enugu Rangers1–0
Oct 2024Enugu Rangers – Abia Warriors1–0
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model makes Enugu Rangers clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.69 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.77 for Enugu Rangers, 0.85 for Abia Warriors), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Enugu Rangers sit 2nd on 18 points; Abia Warriors are 18th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.