Over 1.5 goals@1.07
Over 1.5
93%
GER2. Bundesliga · Matchday 8Friday, 16 October 2026 · Stadion der Freundschaft
Energie Cottbus
14th · 10 pts1–1FULL TIME
1. FC Nürnberg
2nd · 21 pts28% Energie
19% Draw
54% 1.
OUR PICK
1. FC Nürnberg to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.87
Expected goals
1.83 – 2.55
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.62X5.3221.87
Goals 2.5Over1.23Under4.97
Both scoreGG1.29NG4.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.23
Over 2.5
81%
Both teams to score@1.29
GG
77%
Double chance@1.23
12
81%
Season stats
Energie Cottbus1. FC Nürnberg1.8Goals per game2.4
2.0Conceded per game1.3
1.00Points per game2.10
20%Win rate60%
-2Goal difference11
3Form, last 5 (pts)8
Energie Cottbus form
LDDLDH VfL Bochum1–2
A 1. FC Heidenheim1–1
H 1. FC Nürnberg1–1
A SV Darmstadt 983–1
A Lech Poznan2–2
1. FC Nürnberg form
WLLDDA FC St. Pauli1–3
A Bayer Leverkusen5–2
H 1. FC Kaiserslautern0–1
A Energie Cottbus1–1
H VfL Wolfsburg4–4
Head to head
0
Energie
1
Draw
0
1.
Oct 2026Energie Cottbus – 1. FC Nürnberg1–1
2. Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hertha BSC10+1528
21. FC Nürnberg10+1121
3VfL Wolfsburg10+1119
41. FC Kaiserslautern10+218
51. FC Magdeburg10+817
61. FC Heidenheim10-115
7Arminia Bielefeld10+114
8FC St. Pauli10012
9SpVgg Greuther Fürth10-312
10VfL Osnabrück10-311
Match preview
Our model makes 1. FC Nürnberg slight favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.87 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.4 goals in total (1.83 for Energie Cottbus, 2.55 for 1. FC Nürnberg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Energie Cottbus sit 14th on 10 points; 1. FC Nürnberg are 2nd on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.