Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
ITASerie B · Matchday 6Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Carlo Castellani
Empoli
18th · 8 pts2–4FULL TIME
Palermo
1st · 26 pts21% Empoli
23% Draw
57% Palermo
OUR PICK
Palermo to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.76
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.85
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.86X4.4221.76
Goals 2.5Over1.83Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.86NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.86
GG
54%
Double chance@1.26
X2
79%
Season stats
EmpoliPalermo1.0Goals per game2.4
1.7Conceded per game1.2
0.80Points per game2.60
20%Win rate80%
-7Goal difference12
2Form, last 5 (pts)13
Empoli form
DLLDLH Juve Stabia2–2
A Cesena2–1
H Vicenza Virtus0–2
A Ascoli1–1
H Palermo2–4
Palermo form
WDWWWH Vicenza Virtus3–1
A Pisa3–3
H Carrarese2–1
A Mantova0–2
A Empoli2–4
Head to head
1
Empoli
1
Draw
3
Palermo
Oct 2026Empoli – Palermo2–4
Feb 2026Palermo – Empoli3–2
Dec 2025Empoli – Palermo1–3
Feb 2018Empoli – Palermo4–0
Sept 2017Palermo – Empoli3–3
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Palermo clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.76 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.02 for Empoli, 1.85 for Palermo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Empoli sit 18th on 8 points; Palermo are 1st on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.