Over 1.5 goals@1.11
Over 1.5
90%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 14Sunday, 8 November 2026 · De Oude Meerdijk
Emmen
5th · 25 pts16:45KICK-OFF WAT
MVV
11th · 17 pts65% Emmen
18% Draw
17% MVV
OUR PICK
Emmen to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.54
Expected goals
2.59 – 1.30
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.54X5.7125.72
Goals 2.5Over1.34Under3.63
Both scoreGG1.49NG2.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.34
Over 2.5
74%
Both teams to score@1.49
GG
67%
Double chance@1.21
1X
83%
Season stats
EmmenMVV2.0Goals per game1.3
1.8Conceded per game2.2
1.92Points per game1.31
62%Win rate38%
2Goal difference-12
10Form, last 5 (pts)1
Emmen form
LWWWWH Den Bosch0–5
A Groningen0–2
A Vitesse0–2
H Almere City FC2–1
A Dordrecht0–3
MVV form
LLDLLH VVV Venlo1–2
H Excelsior0–3
A Den Bosch2–2
H Heracles1–5
A NAC Breda1–0
Head to head
2
Emmen
1
Draw
2
MVV
Apr 2026Emmen – MVV2–1
Sept 2025MVV – Emmen1–0
Mar 2025MVV – Emmen1–2
Oct 2024Emmen – MVV1–1
Apr 2024Emmen – MVV1–3
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Emmen clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.9 goals in total (2.59 for Emmen, 1.30 for MVV), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Emmen sit 5th on 25 points; MVV are 11th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.