Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
84%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · De Oude Meerdijk
Emmen
5th · 25 pts2–1FULL TIME
Almere City FC
3rd · 25 pts27% Emmen
22% Draw
51% Almere
OUR PICK
Almere City FC to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.97
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.95
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.68X4.5421.97
Goals 2.5Over1.55Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.56NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.55
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.56
GG
64%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
EmmenAlmere City FC2.0Goals per game2.1
1.8Conceded per game1.0
1.92Points per game1.92
62%Win rate62%
2Goal difference14
10Form, last 5 (pts)9
Emmen form
LWWWWH Den Bosch0–5
A Groningen0–2
A Vitesse0–2
H Almere City FC2–1
A Dordrecht0–3
Almere City FC form
WWLLWA Waalwijk1–2
A Telstar0–2
H Roda2–3
A Emmen2–1
H FC Eindhoven3–0
Head to head
2
Emmen
0
Draw
3
Almere
Oct 2026Emmen – Almere City FC2–1
Aug 2026Emmen – Almere City FC4–0
Dec 2025Almere City FC – Emmen4–2
Aug 2025Emmen – Almere City FC1–4
Jun 2023Emmen – Almere City FC1–2
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles13+2532
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda13+524
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse13-118
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Almere City FC slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.97 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.38 for Emmen, 1.95 for Almere City FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Emmen sit 5th on 25 points; Almere City FC are 3rd on 25.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.