Over 1.5 goals@1.63
Over 1.5
61%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 8Friday, 2 October 2026 · Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat
Eldense
13th · 14 pts4–1FULL TIME
Oviedo
9th · 18 pts22% Eldense
29% Draw
50% Oviedo
OUR PICK
Oviedo to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.01
Expected goals
0.76 – 1.31
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.62X3.4922.01
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.52
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.64
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.64
NG
61%
Double chance@1.28
X2
78%
Season stats
EldenseOviedo1.1Goals per game1.4
1.4Conceded per game1.1
1.17Points per game1.64
33%Win rate45%
-4Goal difference3
9Form, last 5 (pts)10
Eldense form
LWLWWH Granada CF0–2
A Atlético Baleares0–1
A Albacete2–0
A Valladolid2–3
H Cordoba2–1
Oviedo form
DDWWLA Numancia3–3
A Almeria2–2
A AD Ceuta FC1–2
H Eibar3–1
A Eldense4–1
Head to head
1
Eldense
3
Draw
1
Oviedo
Oct 2026Eldense – Oviedo4–1
Feb 2025Oviedo – Eldense0–0
Sept 2024Eldense – Oviedo1–1
Feb 2024Oviedo – Eldense1–1
Oct 2023Eldense – Oviedo1–3
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Sporting Gijon12022
6Girona12+1121
7Burgos12+421
8Mallorca11+719
9Oviedo11+318
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Oviedo slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.01 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (0.76 for Eldense, 1.31 for Oviedo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Eldense sit 13th on 14 points; Oviedo are 9th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.