Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
74%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 11Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
Elche
16th · 10 pts18:30KICK-OFF WAT
Valencia
19th · 6 pts57% Elche
23% Draw
19% Valencia
OUR PICK
Elche to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.75
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.91
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.75X4.2625.16
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under1.99
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Under 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.97
NG
51%
Double chance@1.24
1X
81%
Season stats
ElcheValencia1.4Goals per game0.7
1.7Conceded per game1.7
1.00Points per game0.60
20%Win rate10%
-3Goal difference-10
8Form, last 5 (pts)5
Elche form
No recent matches.
Valencia form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Elche
0
Draw
0
Valencia
These sides haven't met recently.
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid10+1524
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad10+119
6Sevilla10017
7Athletic Club9+312
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model makes Elche clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.75 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.75 for Elche, 0.91 for Valencia), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Elche sit 16th on 10 points; Valencia are 19th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.