Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
71%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
Elche
17th · 10 pts0–0FULL TIME
Celta Vigo
9th · 12 pts39% Elche
27% Draw
34% Celta
OUR PICK
Elche to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.55
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.20
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.55X3.7222.95
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.85
Both scoreGG1.96NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.96
GG
51%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
ElcheCelta Vigo1.4Goals per game0.9
1.7Conceded per game0.9
1.00Points per game1.09
20%Win rate18%
-3Goal difference0
8Form, last 5 (pts)8
Elche form
LWWDDH Valencia0–1
A Pinatar1–3
A Rayo Vallecano0–3
A Villarreal0–0
H Celta Vigo0–0
Celta Vigo form
LDWWLA Rayo Vallecano3–0
H Real Betis0–0
A Celtic1–2
H Alaves2–1
H Juventus1–2
Head to head
1
Elche
1
Draw
3
Celta
Oct 2026Elche – Celta Vigo0–0
May 2026Celta Vigo – Elche3–1
Sept 2025Elche – Celta Vigo2–1
Apr 2023Celta Vigo – Elche1–0
Jan 2023Elche – Celta Vigo0–1
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid10+1524
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad10+119
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club9+312
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Elche 39%, the draw 27%, Celta Vigo 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.55 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.31 for Elche, 1.20 for Celta Vigo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Elche sit 17th on 10 points; Celta Vigo are 9th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.