Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSunday, 18 October 2026 · Southwest University Park
El Paso Locomotive
0–1FULL TIME
Sacramento Republic
40% El
27% Draw
33% Sacramento
OUR PICK
El Paso Locomotive to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.47
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.19
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.47X3.7523.04
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.87
Both scoreGG1.94NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.87
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.94
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
El Paso Locomotive form
WLLWLH San Antonio2–1
H New Mexico United0–1
H Sacramento Republic0–1
H Orange County SC2–1
A Lexington3–1
Sacramento Republic form
WWDDWH Oakland Roots3–2
A El Paso Locomotive0–1
H Colorado Springs1–1
A FC Tulsa1–1
H Las Vegas Lights3–2
Head to head
3
El
0
Draw
2
Sacramento
Oct 2026El Paso Locomotive – Sacramento Republic0–1
Mar 2026Sacramento Republic – El Paso Locomotive1–2
Aug 2025El Paso Locomotive – Sacramento Republic1–0
Jul 2025Sacramento Republic – El Paso Locomotive3–0
Oct 2024El Paso Locomotive – Sacramento Republic2–1
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: El Paso Locomotive 40%, the draw 27%, Sacramento Republic 33%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.47 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.35 for El Paso Locomotive, 1.19 for Sacramento Republic), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.