Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSunday, 25 October 2026 · Southwest University Park
El Paso Locomotive
0–1FULL TIME
New Mexico United
45% El
25% Draw
30% New
OUR PICK
El Paso Locomotive to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.22
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.27
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.22X4.0723.29
Goals 2.5Over1.83Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.74NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.74
GG
57%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
El Paso Locomotive form
WLLWLH San Antonio2–1
H New Mexico United0–1
H Sacramento Republic0–1
H Orange County SC2–1
A Lexington3–1
New Mexico United form
WWLWWH Phoenix Rising2–0
A El Paso Locomotive0–1
A San Antonio1–0
H Monterey Bay3–1
H Phoenix Rising2–1
Head to head
2
El
1
Draw
2
New
Oct 2026El Paso Locomotive – New Mexico United0–1
Jul 2026El Paso Locomotive – New Mexico United0–2
May 2026New Mexico United – El Paso Locomotive2–2
Apr 2026New Mexico United – El Paso Locomotive0–4
Feb 2026El Paso Locomotive – New Mexico United4–1
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes El Paso Locomotive slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.22 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.60 for El Paso Locomotive, 1.27 for New Mexico United), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.